Main purpose of the role
To own, facilitate, and administrate local company sales forecasting and demand management for his/her respective categories across U.A.E
1. Base Demand Plan
• Analyze historical demand and filter out outliers (exceptions from the norm).
• Outliers will be identified based on historical trends and knowledge of the various brands, however, by exception; they would be identified in conjunction with discussions with the category teams.
• Identify the most appropriate statistical forecasting algorithm
• Develop the base demand plan using the most appropriate statistical forecasting algorithm and make adjustments where necessary
• Understand the variance of base from consumer demand signal & proposes ways to continuously improve by working with customer to align base (e.g. customer base forecast, Unilever base forecast)
• Communicate base to stakeholders for agreement (customer, category & marketing) upon amendment
• Event Management plan: (weekly & monthly process)
• Works with customer to manage events (activities management process) of above the line activities, below the line activities, documenting assumptions and holding accountable category to ensure activation grid is up-to-date with robust objectives for each event.
2. New product demand (NPD) plan
• Generate the new product forecast using the historical substitution and like modelling / scenario planning techniques agreed with Marketing and Category Management
• Monitors NPD weekly in first 13 weeks and highlights any variance from forecasts using underlying, documented assumptions to category/customer/marketing to minimise bias
• Model’s total lifecycle of NPD (i.e. decline phase), working with category, marketing & development for replacement strategy of NPD, through launch, growth flat & decline phases.
3. Facilitate the Demand Planning Process : (weekly and monthly process)
• Before the monthly meeting, identify and analyse exceptions to be discussed. Raise the exceptions telephonically with the relevant Channel/Account Manager or Category Manager if applicable.
• Present the exceptions at the monthly meeting and facilitate the process of reaching consensus on the final forecast number
• Question the activity based volume projections based on the success or failure of past activities.
• Document assumptions for base & changes. Facilitate events discussions, documenting the event objectives and circulating to relevant team members (e.g. marketing, finance)
• Agree the demand plan.
4. Communication with extended Supply Chain
• Works with Customer Service Leaders to develop scenarios to change the phasing of demand to address supply gaps
• Communicates scenarios to change the phasing of demand to Category Managers and agrees appropriate action
5. Continuous improvement
• Analyse forecast accuracy and bias and identify and implement process enhancements to improve these KPI’s
• Communicate forecast accuracy and bias information to Category, Marketing and Channel/Account Managers to motivate improvements
• Champion the development of changes / additions to current processes
• Coach Category, Marketing and Channel/Account Managers on forecasting techniques to improve forecasting accuracy
6. Customer Service orientation
• Understand the impact of the customer buying pattern
• Effectively communicates with and engages the Customer on operational issues
Key competencies (max 5)
• Analytical Thinking
• Influencing Skills
• Drive and Proactivity
• Passion for growth
• Organizational Awareness
• Producing Baseline Forecast
• Integrating New Product Demand and Event Forecasts
• Communicating Plans and Constraints
• Using Information Technology
Relevant Experience/ Years of Experience
- Must have Industrial Engineering Degree
- Must be strong in Excel
- Preferably have APO, SAP knowledge
- Preferably looking for a Fresh graduate or max 2 years experience in a Demand planning position with another FMCG company.